After a turbulent Gameweek 12, Opta\u2019s supercomputer has reshaped its projections for the 2025\u201326 Premier League season. Manchester City, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United all lost in the weekend fixtures, triggering a major update to the model.<\/p>\n
Liverpool collected zero points after a 3\u20130 defeat to Nottingham Forest at Anfield. The defending Premier League champions have won just one of their last seven league matches, allowing Arsenal to extend their advantage following a dominant 4\u20131 victory over Spurs. Chelsea also registered a win; the Blues dispatched Burnley 2\u20130 on Saturday.<\/p>\n
Manchester United were beaten 1\u20130 by an undermanned Everton side and sit 10th after 12 games. Opta\u2019s projection now places Arsenal as clear favourites to win the title, giving the Gunners a 76.65% chance and an expected points total of 81.40. Manchester City are forecast to finish second with 71.07 expected points and a 13.64% title probability. The model notes City\u2019s summer outlay of \u00a3179.4 million ($235.1 million) and still predicts no improvement points-wise.<\/p>\n
Chelsea have moved into third in the projection, expected to end the campaign on 64.96 points and a 3.70% chance of the title. A third-place finish would be Chelsea\u2019s highest since 2021\u201322, but the projection implies around four fewer points than last season despite their Club World Cup triumph over the summer.<\/p>\n
Opta\u2019s table shows Liverpool fourth on about 63.99 expected points, with Aston Villa (62.12), Crystal Palace (61.07), Brighton (57.74), Newcastle (55.97) and Bournemouth (54.95) all close behind. Manchester United are projected to finish on roughly 54.68 points and have an 8.03% chance of Champions League qualification in the model. The Red Devils are currently level on points with Liverpool but sit two places higher in the standings on goal differential.<\/p>\n
The projection also points out that Liverpool\u2019s predicted total would be their lowest haul since 2015\u201316, when they finished eighth. Opta\u2019s numbers leave little margin for error; as Sir Alex Ferguson recently put it, “At United you need to have success,” and, for now, United\u2019s position remains far from that standard.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Opta model makes Arsenal heavy favourites after Gameweek 12; United projected midtable climb. today.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4684,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[192,175,1083,172],"tags":[1021,1162,1047],"class_list":["post-4685","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-arsenal","category-liverpool","category-man-utd","category-epl","tag-amorim","tag-analytics","tag-champions-league"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4685","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4685"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4685\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4684"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4685"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4685"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4685"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}