Arsenal and Liverpool both dropped points in Gameweek 11, but Opta\u2019s projection model continues to favour Mikel Arteta\u2019s side for the 2025\u201326 Premier League title. Arsenal drew 2\u20132 and Manchester City thrashed Liverpool 3\u20130 at the Etihad, bringing City within four points of the leaders.<\/p>\n
Opta\u2019s supercomputer places Arsenal top with 26 current points and an expected total of 80.21 points, giving them a 65.49% chance of winning the title. Man City sit on 22 points and are projected to finish on 72.73 points with a 19.43% title probability. Liverpool, on 18 points after the Etihad defeat, are forecast to end the season on 69.20 points with an 8.89% chance.<\/p>\n
Despite the draw against Sunderland, the model still sees Arsenal as the most likely champions. Opta notes Arsenal\u2019s projected 80 points would be four fewer than the total Liverpool required to win last season. The projection also indicates that a title won with around 80 points would rank as the fourth-lowest champions total in league history.<\/p>\n
Below the top three, Opta projects a tight fight for Champions League qualification. Chelsea are projected to finish fourth on 63.20 expected points with a 39.23% Champions League probability. Aston Villa and Crystal Palace are forecast to battle for the fifth spot, with Villa on 60.00 expected points (23.78%) and Palace on 59.49 (22.06%).<\/p>\n
Bournemouth are still in the hunt and are projected to finish on 57.15 points (13.35%), while Manchester United are forecast at 56.34 points with an 11.55% chance of making a return to Europe\u2019s biggest stage. Brighton (55.86 expected points, 10.79%) and Tottenham Hotspur (55.01 expected points, 9.88%) round out Opta\u2019s projected top 10.<\/p>\n
Opta\u2019s forecast assumes the top five in the English top-flight are likely to qualify for UEFA\u2019s premier club competition. Injuries and red cards have affected Chelsea\u2019s 2025\u201326 campaign after their FIFA Club World Cup triumph, according to the projection context.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Opta predicts Arsenal will still lead 2025-26 despite Gameweek 11 slip; Man City and Liverpool chase.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4389,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[192,1236,175,1056,172],"tags":[1162,1047],"class_list":["post-4390","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-arsenal","category-gameweek-11","category-liverpool","category-man-city","category-epl","tag-analytics","tag-champions-league"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4390","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4390"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4390\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4389"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4390"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4390"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4390"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}