After nine matches Arsenal sit four points clear at the top and Opta\u2019s supercomputer now makes them the probable champions. “It\u2019s very early,” Mikel Arteta told everyone who was willing to listen after Arsenal opened up a four-point lead at the Premier League summit on Sunday. The model weighs historical quirks \u2014 none of the last six teams to top the table after nine matches have finished first, Liverpool the most recent in 2019 \u2014 alongside a wide range of current data.<\/p>\n
Arsenal\u2019s defensive form impressed at the Emirates. David Raya was forced into his first Premier League save since September by Crystal Palace, yet the Eagles could only manage one shot on target. Arsenal themselves had just one goal-bound effort, but Eberechi Eze\u2019s volley supplied the decisive finish. As both Arteta and Jurri\u00ebn Timber stressed postgame, the Gunners have “a lot” that can be improved. Opta\u2019s 10,000 simulations return Arsenal as champions two-thirds of the time, represented in the model by a 66.35% chance of winning the title.<\/p>\n
Manchester City and Liverpool are projected to chase but trail in probability. Opta gives Man City a 14.33% title chance and Liverpool 11.43%. Chelsea (1.77%), Aston Villa (1.14%) and Bournemouth (1.10%) are all long shots by comparison. Bournemouth finished the weekend in second in the table, and their manager reflected caution: “It\u2019s definitely a very good start, but it\u2019s just a start,” Andoni Iraola said.<\/p>\n
The supercomputer\u2019s season projections extend beyond the top three. Opta\u2019s predicted top 10 by points lists Arsenal on 80.02, Man City 70.27, Liverpool 69.25, Chelsea 60.20, Aston Villa 59.22, Bournemouth 58.87, Newcastle 58.45, Crystal Palace 57.27, Man Utd 56.76 and Spurs 56.20.<\/p>\n
Manchester United began the campaign with low expectations from the model, which originally forecast a 12th-place finish, yet they have since won three in a row after heavy recruitment. Opta still expects United to finish ninth, and their manager cautioned that fortunes can change quickly: “Three weeks ago, things looked very different, and it can change again just as quickly.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Opta predicts Arsenal as favourites after nine matches; Man City and Liverpool trail in simulations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4060,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[230,192,172],"tags":[1021,1162,841],"class_list":["post-4061","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analytics-stats","category-arsenal","category-epl","tag-amorim","tag-analytics","tag-david-raya"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4061","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4061"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4061\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4060"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4061"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4061"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4061"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}