\u201cThe ball is round.\u201d That aphorism sits at odds with the elaborate statistical models now applied to football. Opta has compiled a player-by-player prediction hub for the upcoming round of Premier League fixtures, estimating everything from shots and bookings to the central question: who is most likely to score. Only senior players likely to start have been included.<\/p>\n
The model flags Mohamed Salah as the single most likely scorer for Liverpool against Everton (0.65). Salah\u2019s Merseyside record is highlighted in the data: eight goals from 13 derbies, a haul only four players in the 131-year history of the fixture can better. Hugo Ekitik\u00e9 (0.61) and Alexander Isak (0.60) follow close behind in the same Liverpool fixture; Isak was given his first 60 minutes of the season on Wednesday, so Ekitik\u00e9 could yet be preferred.<\/p>\n
Everton\u2019s predicted top threat is Beto. David Moyes has not seen one of his Everton players score in a Premier League fixture at Anfield since Jermaine Beckford nabbed one in January 2011.<\/p>\n
Across the weekend the data point to Danny Welbeck (0.37) and Georginio Rutter (0.30) as Brighton\u2019s most likely scorers against Tottenham, while Richarlison (0.29) and Randal Kolo Muani (0.24) are the main candidates for Spurs.<\/p>\n
Opta\u2019s rankings also single out Chris Wood (0.40) for Nottingham Forest, noting his previous return of 49 Premier League goals in 144 appearances for the Clarets. Jean-Philippe Mateta (0.41) has already found the net in three different competitions this season and tops Crystal Palace\u2019s list.<\/p>\n
At Old Trafford the computer favours Benjamin \u0160e\u0161ko (0.37) as the likeliest scorer, with Cole Palmer (0.35) and Jo\u00e3o Pedro (0.34) among Chelsea\u2019s leading probabilities. As Ruben Amorim lamented: \u201cWe need to be more clinical.\u201d<\/p>\n
Finally, Erling Haaland leads the predictions for Manchester City (0.62), the model noting his 12 goals in seven outings for club and country, while Viktor Gy\u00f6keres (0.58) is Arsenal\u2019s top projected scorer. The hub offers a statistical guide to Matchday 5 without claiming certainty, only probabilities.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Opta’s player-by-player predictions identify the likeliest Premier League scorers for Matchday 5. GW<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2921,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[230,175,969],"tags":[195,317,319],"class_list":["post-2922","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analytics-stats","category-liverpool","category-premier-league","tag-alexander-isak","tag-benjamin-sesko","tag-cole-palmer"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2922","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2922"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2922\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2921"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2922"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2922"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2922"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}