The CIES Football Observatory has applied a statistical model that combines sporting, economic and demographic variables to forecast the winners of Europe\u2019s top 15 divisions for the 2025-26 season. The study focuses on competitions ranked by UEFA coefficient, excluding Norway\u2019s Eliteserien, which began in March.<\/p>\n
England\u2019s Premier League remains the continent\u2019s most prominent competition in the dataset. The model gives Liverpool a 28.9% chance to defend their title, with Arsenal forecast as the principal challengers at 18.8%. That 28.9% figure is the third lowest probability among the top 15 leagues in the analysis.<\/p>\n
Italy\u2019s Serie A proved difficult to call. Napoli arrive as reigning champions, but Inter are tipped to take the crown, assigned a 25.6% probability despite a change of management over the summer.<\/p>\n
In Spain, the CIES model favours Real Madrid to reclaim La Liga. Barcelona, who won the title last season, are given 29.6% compared to Real Madrid\u2019s 40.6%. The report notes the arrival of Xabi Alonso as a factor that could help Los Blancos recover from an underwhelming 2024-25 campaign.<\/p>\n
Germany and France appear more predictable. Bayern Munich are projected to win the Bundesliga with a 61.4% chance, while Paris Saint-Germain are heavily favoured in Ligue 1 with a 73.0% probability. The study points out PSG have won 11 of the last 13 French first division titles and that only Red Star Belgrade in Serbia registers a higher single-league percentage in the analysis.<\/p>\n
Elsewhere, Feyenoord are backed to reclaim the Dutch title with 28.6%, overturning PSV Eindhoven\u2019s recent run. Club Brugge are expected to surpass Union Saint-Gilloise in Belgium with a 36.3% chance. Sporting CP, Galatasaray, Slavia Prague, Olympiacos, Copenhagen and Basel are each tipped to repeat last season\u2019s triumphs. The model also predicts Legia Warsaw will usurp Lech Pozna\u0144 in Poland and that RB Salzburg will overthrow Sturm Graz in Austria.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
CIES predictions list winners for Europe’s top 15 leagues in 2025-26, showing wide probability spread.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2686,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[230,961],"tags":[990],"class_list":["post-2687","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analytics-stats","category-international","tag-cies-football-observatory"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2687","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2687"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2687\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2687"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2687"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2687"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}