{"id":13934,"date":"2026-05-20T13:54:04","date_gmt":"2026-05-20T11:54:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/2026\/05\/20\/opta-forecasts-final-day-relegation-scenarios-for-2025-26\/"},"modified":"2026-05-20T13:54:04","modified_gmt":"2026-05-20T11:54:04","slug":"opta-forecasts-final-day-relegation-scenarios-for-2025-26","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/2026\/05\/20\/opta-forecasts-final-day-relegation-scenarios-for-2025-26\/","title":{"rendered":"Opta Forecasts Final-Day Relegation Scenarios for 2025\/26"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Premier League reaches its final round this weekend with one relegation place still undecided. Burnley and Wolves are already confirmed as relegated, leaving a single spot to settle between Tottenham and West Ham.<\/p>\n<p>Tottenham have one match remaining to salvage what the draft describes as an utterly disastrous campaign. Their destiny remains in their own hands going into Sunday\u2019s finale, though form this season offers little comfort. West Ham still hope to overturn their London rivals and avoid the drop.<\/p>\n<p>The Opta supercomputer provides clear projections. It predicts Tottenham will finish on 39.73 points with a 14.09% chance of relegation. West Ham are projected to reach 37.78 points and face an 85.91% probability of relegation. Burnley and Wolves, both already relegated, have projected points of 22.42 and 20.31 respectively, each with a 100% relegation chance.<\/p>\n<p>With Burnley and Wolves long gone, just one relegation spot remains. West Ham are occupying that position and must win on the final day while also relying on Tottenham losing. The Irons sit two points behind Spurs, but Tottenham\u2019s superior goal difference means West Ham know three points will only be enough if Tottenham are beaten. The unlikelihood of West Ham winning and Spurs losing is reflected in Opta\u2019s projections. As per the supercomputer, Nuno Esp\u00edrito Santo\u2019s side have an 85.91% chance of being relegated when they host Leeds United on the final day of the season.<\/p>\n<p>Opta\u2019s match outcome probabilities show Tottenham versus Everton as: Home Win 50.4%, Draw 22.8%, Away Win 26.8%. For West Ham against Leeds: Home Win 51.5%, Draw 23.8%, Away Win 24.7%.<\/p>\n<p>West Ham are not yet mathematically out of the fight. Tottenham host Everton in search of only their third home win of the Premier League season. On their own patch, Spurs have won twice, drawn six times and lost 10 matches, the joint-worst home record in the division, tied with Burnley.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Opta projects West Ham as favorites for relegation while Tottenham still hold finalday control today<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13933,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[230,969,1464],"tags":[1162],"class_list":["post-13934","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analytics-stats","category-premier-league","category-tottenham","tag-analytics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13934","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13934"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13934\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13933"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13934"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13934"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13934"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}