Two late incidents and a small margin of error have left Tottenham and West Ham embroiled in a direct relegation fight with only two matches to play. Georginio Rutter\u2019s 95th-minute goal in Roberto De Zerbi\u2019s first home game and a stoppage-time equaliser conceded to Brighton & Hove Albion have combined with a separate penalty incident involving Mathys Tel and Dominic Calvert-Lewin to leave the picture finely balanced.<\/p>\n
Opta\u2019s supercomputer returns a stark assessment. Tottenham sit on 38 actual points with a projected 40.47 and a 19.54% chance of relegation. West Ham are on 36 actual points, predicted to finish on 38.62 with an 80.46% chance of relegation. Burnley and Wolves are confirmed as relegated in Opta\u2019s scenarios, both shown with 100% relegation probability and projected points of 22.78 and 20.41 respectively.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s going to be tough,\u201d Nuno Esp\u00edrito Santo admitted when reflecting on West Ham\u2019s chances of survival after Sunday\u2019s bitter reverse against Arsenal . Tough, but not impossible: Opta\u2019s model sends the Hammers tumbling out in four of five scenarios.<\/p>\n
Spurs remain the stronger side in the calculations. The projection gives them a reasonable edge, though only two points separate the teams in expected totals, leaving the contest liable to be decided on the final day. \u201cIt will be tough until the last minute against Everton,\u201d he warned after getting a firm grasp of just how mentally fragile his roster is.<\/p>\n
There is a clear route by which Tottenham could secure safety before the last Sunday in May. Should West Ham fail to beat Newcastle United at St. James\u2019 Park, Spurs would mathematically guarantee survival with a win over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday, May 19. Even so, history offers a warning: Tottenham have recorded just one win at Stamford Bridge in the last 36 years. Danny Drinkwater was on the Chelsea roster which last lost a home game to Tottenham on April Fool\u2019s Day 2018.<\/p>\n
With margins minimal, the remaining fixtures and those single decisive moments are set to determine which capital club remains in the Premier League for 2025\/26.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Opta gives Tottenham a 19.54% chance to stay and West Ham an 80.46% relegation risk. Final fixtures.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13756,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[172,1464],"tags":[1162],"class_list":["post-13757","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-epl","category-tottenham","tag-analytics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13757","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13757"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13757\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13756"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13757"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13757"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13757"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}