Arsenal\u2019s visit to the London Stadium produced the sort of nervy afternoon that tight title races often deliver. The leaders laboured as West Ham grew into the game and created the moments that might have swung the result. David Raya was on hand to potentially \u2018Stefan Ortega\u2019 Arsenal’s way to glory with a monumental save to deny Mateus Fernandes, minutes before Leandro Trossard capitalised following a curious Martin \u00d8degaard meander.<\/p>\n
Trossard\u2019s effort looked decisive until stoppage-time drama. West Ham believed they had salvaged a point, but VAR intervened and Pablo\u2019s impediment of Raya was judged sufficient to overturn the on-field decision. That lengthy review ultimately left Arsenal with the three points.<\/p>\n
Opta\u2019s projection model now gives Arsenal an 87.2% chance of the 2025\/26 title, a rise from 79.7% after Manchester City eased past Brentford 3\u20130 on Saturday. Opta predicts Arsenal to finish on 83.37 points and Man City on 79.86, with City still able to cut the gap to two points this week. The forecast assumes City must win out to reclaim the title, with a difficult trip to Bournemouth among their remaining fixtures.<\/p>\n
Opta\u2019s European places projections show: Manchester United (actual 65, predicted 67.94) at 100% for Champions League qualification; Liverpool (59, 62.37) at 96.98%; Aston Villa (59, 61.03) at 87.36%; Bournemouth (55, 57.48) at 10.78%; Brighton (53, 56.08) at 4.88%. Manchester United secured their return to Europe\u2019s premier competition by beating Liverpool 3\u20132 this month.<\/p>\n
The fight for sixth is affected by the Europa League final: an Aston Villa win in Istanbul would alter qualification routes. Opta gives sixth-place chances of Bournemouth 48.63%, Brighton 32.12%, Brentford 3.85%, Chelsea 0.8% and Everton 0.37%. Bournemouth remain unbeaten since Antoine Semenyo fled to Manchester.<\/p>\n
At the wrong end, Opta\u2019s relegation probabilities place Burnley and Wolves at 100%, West Ham 87.65% and Tottenham 12.35%, while Leeds, Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest sit at 0% in the model.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Opta model boosts Arsenal’s title odds to 87.2% after late VAR overturn and Raya save in London 2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13735,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[230,192,172],"tags":[1162],"class_list":["post-13736","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analytics-stats","category-arsenal","category-epl","tag-analytics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13736","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13736"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13736\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13735"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13736"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13736"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13736"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}