Tottenham Hotspur’s 2\u20131 victory at Villa Park on Sunday shifted the look of the relegation scrap as the 2025\/26 campaign nears its end. A day earlier West Ham suffered a 3\u20130 defeat to Brentford, and the two results combined to reverse the positions of the clubs that had occupied 17th and 18th heading into Gameweek 35.<\/p>\n
Before those results, West Ham held the edge over Roberto De Zerbi’s men. After Tottenham’s win at Aston Villa, Spurs moved above the Hammers. With only three matches remaining, Opta’s supercomputer offers a clear set of probabilities for the final run-in:<\/p>\n
15. Leeds United \u2014 Current Points 43, Expected Points 46.72, Relegation Chances 0.10%
\n16. Nottingham Forest \u2014 Current Points 39, Expected Points 44.12, Relegation Chances 2.29%
\n17. Tottenham \u2014 Current Points 37, Expected Points 40.90, Relegation Chances 22.48%
\n18. West Ham \u2014 Current Points 36, Expected Points 39.22, Relegation Chances 75.09%
\n19. Burnley \u2014 Current Points 20, Expected Points 22.73, Relegation Chances 100.00%
\n20. Wolves \u2014 Current Points 18, Expected Points 21.02, Relegation Chances 100.00%<\/p>\n
Leeds United strengthened their position with a 3\u20131 victory over Burnley on Friday. The three points moved Daniel Farke’s side to 14th, seven points clear of the drop zone. Opta’s model still projects the Whites to finish a place lower than they stand now, but that margin provides breathing space.<\/p>\n
Nottingham Forest must wait until Monday’s meeting with Chelsea. Even a single point at Stamford Bridge would take the Tricky Trees to 40 points, and the supercomputer backs V\u00edtor Pereira’s men to indeed remain safe, assigning them a 2.29% chance of relegation.<\/p>\n
For Tottenham, consecutive league wins have produced a small cushion in 17th, but the model gives them a 22.48% probability of dropping out of the division for the first time since 1977. With three games left, the permutations are tight and every result will materially reshape those projections.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Opta supercomputer puts Spurs and West Ham in a two-horse relegation fight with three games left …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13609,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1625,172,1464],"tags":[1162,1636],"class_list":["post-13610","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gameweek-35","category-epl","category-tottenham","tag-analytics","tag-opta-predictions"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13610","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13610"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13610\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13609"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13610"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13610"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13610"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}