Arsenal sit in control of the Premier League title race after a 3\u20130 win over Fulham, but the margins are slim. The Opta supercomputer projects Arsenal to finish on 82.28 expected points from their current 76, giving them a 79.70% chance of being champions. Manchester City, on 70 points, are forecast at 79.30 expected points with a 20.30% title probability.<\/p>\n
That six-point advantage is meaningful, yet fragile. On paper, Arsenal are in an imposing position, but City face two fixtures that matter: away at Everton on Monday and then Brentford on Saturday. If City are perfect in those games they can erase the gap, and by the time Arsenal next play in the Premier League the two clubs would be level on games played.<\/p>\n
The Opta model also lays out the race for Champions League football. Manchester United, on 61 points and an expected 67.03, are shown with a 100.00% chance of qualifying and can confirm their place with victory over Liverpool on Sunday. Aston Villa and Liverpool are close: Villa sit on 58 points with 64.15 expected and a 99.01% chance, while Liverpool also have 58 points with 64.00 expected and a 98.63% chance. Brighton are projected to finish with 55.17 expected points from 50 now and sit on a 0.69% chance of Champions League qualification. Bournemouth (49, 54.45, 0.51%), Brentford (51, 54.30, 0.51%) and Chelsea (48, 53.79, 0.60%) are all shown outside the automatic certainty but still within reach of European action.<\/p>\n
At the bottom, the simulation makes relegation clear for two clubs. Burnley (20 points, 22.74 expected) and Wolverhampton Wanderers (18 points, 21.02 expected) have 100.00% relegation chances and will be replaced in the Championship by Coventry City and Ipswich Town. The final slot remains undecided. Nottingham Forest (39, 44.12, 0.97%) look relatively safe, while West Ham (36, 39.25, 48.78%) and Tottenham (34, 38.70, 50.22%) are in the precarious positions. Tottenham are currently backed for the drop, although victory over Aston Villa in Sunday\u2019s late game would see Roberto De Zerbi\u2019s side climb out of the relegation zone with four games left to play.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Opta model favours Arsenal after 3-0 win; title race, Champions League and relegation remain tight.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13583,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[230,192,172],"tags":[1162],"class_list":["post-13584","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analytics-stats","category-arsenal","category-epl","tag-analytics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13584","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13584"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13584\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13583"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13584"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13584"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13584"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}