Saturday produced a late swing in the bottom three and left the relegation fight tighter than before the final four fixtures. With eight minutes remaining Jo\u00e3o Palhinha bundled home what looked like a decisive winner for Spurs, and home supporters were still celebrating when Everton produced an equaliser that reached the crowd. Spurs briefly climbed out of the relegation zone, only for Callum Wilson to power West Ham back into a stoppage-time lead to secure three points and sour what was a first win of 2026 for Spurs.<\/p>\n
Opta\u2019s supercomputer has translated the weekend\u2019s events into updated projections for the closing run. The model gives the current table and chances as follows: Leeds United sit 15th on 40 current points with expected points of 45.74 and a 1.21% chance of relegation. Nottingham Forest are 16th on 39 points, with 43.99 expected points and a 1.75% relegation probability. West Ham are 17th on 36 points, expected to finish on 40.12 points and recorded a 37.35% chance of going down. Tottenham occupy 18th on 34 points with 38.57 expected points and a 59.59% relegation likelihood. Burnley and Wolves remain certain relegation cases, both at 100.00% in the model, with Burnley on 20 points and expected 23.44, Wolves on 17 points and expected 21.51.<\/p>\n
Leeds\u2019 midweek draw with Bournemouth pushed them to the conventional safety threshold of 40 points, and Daniel Farke\u2019s side sit in a far healthier position according to the numbers. Nottingham Forest\u2019s 5\u20130 win over Sunderland on Friday moved them within a point of Leeds and bolstered their goal difference. West Ham\u2019s late victory lifted Nuno Esp\u00edrito Santo\u2019s team out of the drop zone for now. Roberto De Zerbi\u2019s Spurs remain two points adrift of safety and face the steepest statistical risk as the campaign heads into its final four matches.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Late drama swung the fight for safety. Opta’s model today reshuffles relegation odds after Saturday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12966,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[969,1464,438],"tags":[1162,1608],"class_list":["post-12967","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-premier-league","category-tottenham","category-west-ham-united","tag-analytics","tag-opta-supercomputer"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12967","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12967"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12967\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12966"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12967"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12967"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12967"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}