{"id":12513,"date":"2026-04-21T13:07:05","date_gmt":"2026-04-21T11:07:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/2026\/04\/21\/opta-model-signals-chaotic-relegation-race-after-spurs-and-hammers-slip\/"},"modified":"2026-04-21T13:07:05","modified_gmt":"2026-04-21T11:07:05","slug":"opta-model-signals-chaotic-relegation-race-after-spurs-and-hammers-slip","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/2026\/04\/21\/opta-model-signals-chaotic-relegation-race-after-spurs-and-hammers-slip\/","title":{"rendered":"Opta Model Signals Chaotic Relegation Race After Spurs and Hammers Slip"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The latest round of Premier League fixtures confirmed the first team to be relegated to the Championship. Wolves have now dropped, a reality underlined by the weekend results.<\/p>\n<p>Tottenham Hotspur impressed against Brighton &#038; Hove Albion but succumbed to a 95th-minute equalizer that left them sitting 18th in the standings. Fortunately for Roberto De Zerbi\u2019s side, West Ham United failed to take advantage on Monday. A 0\u20130 draw against Crystal Palace was enough to demote Wolves but it did little to ease West Ham\u2019s relegation fears.<\/p>\n<p>Nuno Esp\u00edrito Santo\u2019s Hammers are two points clear with five games to play, while even Nottingham Forest\u2019s five-point cushion is not secure at this late stage of the season.<\/p>\n<p>With five fixtures remaining, the Opta supercomputer offers a stark view of the bottom five. Wolves and Burnley are assigned a 100.00% chance of relegation. Tottenham occupy 18th on 31 points and are given a 58.33% likelihood of dropping, with an expected points total of 36.88. West Ham sit on 33 points with an expected 38.54 and a 36.90% relegation chance. Nottingham Forest sit 16th on 36 points, expected to reach 42.00 and shown a 4.38% chance of relegation.<\/p>\n<p>Burnley face an unenviable test against title-chasing Manchester City on Wednesday. Scott Parker\u2019s side must avoid defeat to postpone their relegation. A loss would guarantee a spot in the Championship next season and even an unlikely draw would effectively seal it, given Burnley\u2019s poor goal difference.<\/p>\n<p>Spurs currently sit two points behind West Ham and are not predicted to close that gap over their remaining fixtures. A trip to bottom side Wolves next weekend offers Spurs a clear chance to boost morale, and a meeting with 15th-placed Leeds United looks winnable. Tricky games against Aston Villa, Chelsea and Everton remain potential pitfalls.<\/p>\n<p>West Ham\u2019s remaining schedule runs through Everton, Brentford, Arsenal and Newcastle United, before a final-day meeting with Leeds. Their form \u2014 two wins and a pair of draws from their last five games \u2014 is the principal factor keeping survival realistic; a similar return over the final five matches would likely secure safety.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Opta model rates Wolves and Burnley certain relegation; Spurs face steep odds with five games left .<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12512,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[230,969,187,438],"tags":[1162],"class_list":["post-12513","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analytics-stats","category-premier-league","category-tottenham-hotspur","category-west-ham-united","tag-analytics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12513","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12513"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12513\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12512"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12513"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12513"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12513"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}