Sunday\u2019s clash at the Etihad Stadium was widely viewed as a pivotal moment in the title race. Manchester City\u2019s dramatic victory over Arsenal altered the narrative on the pitch but the Opta supercomputer\u2019s projection still favors the Gunners.<\/p>\n
The model lists Arsenal on 70 points with an expected points total of 80.77 and a 72.97% chance of finishing top. Manchester City sit on 67 points, with an expected 78.16 and a 27.03% title probability. The projection predicts City will finish two points behind Arsenal.<\/p>\n
City return to action on Wednesday against Burnley; a win could move them to first with five games remaining.<\/p>\n
Champions League qualification looks largely settled at the top of the chasing pack. Aston Villa and Manchester United both have 58 points and identical qualification probabilities of 98.64%, with expected points of 65.89 and 65.62 respectively. Liverpool, on 55 points, has an expected 62.63 and an 88.86% chance of finishing in the top positions.<\/p>\n
Bournemouth and Chelsea are level at 48 points but their expected points diverge: Bournemouth 55.32 (2.55% qualification chance) and Chelsea 55.18 (4.75%). Brentford (48, expected 54.34, 2.47%), Brighton (47, expected 54.90, 2.85%), Everton (47, expected 53.81, 0.83%), Sunderland (46, expected 52.25, 0.22%) and Fulham (45, expected 51.12, 0.04%) remain in contention for European places.<\/p>\n
\u201cManchester United\u2019s victory over Chelsea on Saturday has sealed a spot in the Champions League in every sense but mathematically.\u201d The model gives the Red Devils a 98.64% chance of qualifying. Both Aston Villa and Liverpool improved their prospects with late winners on Sunday. Virgil van Dijk\u2019s 100th-minute header against Everton opens up a seven-point cushion for the Reds, with Villa a further three points up thanks to their own stoppage-time triumph over Sunderland.<\/p>\n
At the bottom, Nottingham Forest (36, expected 41.95, 4.43%) hover above the danger zone while West Ham (32, expected 38.40, 38.97%) and Tottenham (31, expected 36.92, 56.16%) face varying levels of risk. Burnley (20) and Wolves (17) are both given 100% chances of relegation. Leeds United\u2019s recent victory over Wolverhampton Wanderers leaves them eight points clear of the drop with five matches remaining.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Opta supercomputer: Arsenal 72.97% to win title; Man City 27.03% after Etihad loss, five left to go<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12347,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[230,192,1056,172],"tags":[1162,1594],"class_list":["post-12348","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analytics-stats","category-arsenal","category-man-city","category-epl","tag-analytics","tag-title-predictions"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12348","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12348"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12348\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12347"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12348"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12348"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12348"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}