With six games left the Opta supercomputer has produced a clear outline of who is most likely to reach the Champions League and who faces a fight. Arsenal need one more point to guarantee qualification and, together with Manchester City, sit on a 100.00% probability of reaching Europe\u2019s top competition. Arsenal have 70 current points and expected points of 82.10; Man City sit on 64 current points with an expected 76.57.<\/p>\n
The projection tightens from third place downward. Michael Carrick\u2019s Man Utd currently occupy third in the table but a defeat to Leeds has dented momentum. The model, however, favours Aston Villa to finish third. Villa, held 1\u20131 at Nottingham Forest, are assigned a 94.98% chance and have 55 points with an expected 64.82.<\/p>\n
Man Utd remain in contention in the calculations and are projected to finish fourth with a 90.22% probability, on 55 current points and an expected 63.82. Liverpool\u2019s 2\u20130 win over Fulham delivered a morale boost and a four-point cushion; Arne Slot\u2019s side are given a 71.33% chance, with 52 current points and an expected 61.24.<\/p>\n
Chelsea suffered a 3\u20130 loss to Man City that curtailed their prospects. The supercomputer places Chelsea\u2019s odds of Champions League qualification at just 19.73% with 48 current points. For Chelsea the Europa League now appears the most likely outcome, as Liam Rosenior\u2019s Blues see other teams close the gap.<\/p>\n
The extra Champions League place earned by the Premier League because of English clubs\u2019 European performance is a key factor in these projections. The model underlines how fine the margins are: the expected finishing positions separate teams by only a handful of points and even Crystal Palace are given a 0.15% chance of reaching the Champions League. With so few matches remaining the predictions set clear favourites but leave room for late movement.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Opta supercomputer projects top-five probabilities with six games remaining; Arsenal and City secure<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11768,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[230,192,172],"tags":[1162,1047],"class_list":["post-11769","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analytics-stats","category-arsenal","category-epl","tag-analytics","tag-champions-league"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11769","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11769"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11769\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11768"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11769"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11769"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11769"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}