{"id":11623,"date":"2026-04-13T02:07:05","date_gmt":"2026-04-13T00:07:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/2026\/04\/13\/opta-forecast-how-this-weekend-shifted-the-premier-league-picture\/"},"modified":"2026-04-13T02:07:05","modified_gmt":"2026-04-13T00:07:05","slug":"opta-forecast-how-this-weekend-shifted-the-premier-league-picture","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/2026\/04\/13\/opta-forecast-how-this-weekend-shifted-the-premier-league-picture\/","title":{"rendered":"Opta Forecast: How This Weekend Shifted the Premier League Picture"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Manchester City closed ground on Arsenal over the weekend, leaving the title race tighter and placing fresh pressure on Mikel Arteta\u2019s side. City hold a game in hand and will host Arsenal next weekend, a fixture that could dramatically reduce the gap with only a few matches remaining.<\/p>\n<p>Liverpool\u2019s 2\u20130 win over Fulham gave the Reds breathing room in the battle for the final Champions League place, while Tottenham Hotspur\u2019s 1\u20130 defeat to Sunderland pushed them closer to the relegation fight.<\/p>\n<p>Opta\u2019s supercomputer updated its projection after the weekend\u2019s results. Arsenal top the prediction with 70 current points and an expected tally of 82.09 points, their title chances placed at 87.26%. Manchester City are forecast to finish second with 64 current points and an expected 76.35 points, their title chance now 12.74%.<\/p>\n<p>Manchester United, on the back of an upturn under Michael Carrick, are predicted third: 55 current points, 66 expected and a 96.30% Champions League probability. Aston Villa sit alongside United in the projections with 55 current points, an expected 64.85 points and a 94.4% chance of Champions League qualification.<\/p>\n<p>Liverpool are forecast to claim the fifth and final Champions League berth, finishing on around 61.18 expected points. Chelsea are projected to finish below Liverpool with an expected 57 points; Opta notes Chelsea have won just one of their last seven Premier League matches and assigns them a 19.48% chance of qualifying for the Champions League.<\/p>\n<p>Brighton and Everton are both predicted to finish in the mid-50s for expected points, placing them outside the top five but clear of relegation.<\/p>\n<p>At the foot of the table, Opta places Leeds and Nottingham Forest narrowly clear of serious danger with expected points in the low 40s and single-digit relegation probabilities. West Ham are forecast to escape the drop with about 38.44 expected points after recent positive results, including draws with Man Utd and Man City and a 4\u20130 win over Wolves. Tottenham sit in a more precarious position with a 46.06% relegation chance. Burnley and Wolves are projected to finish with very low expected points and have 100% relegation probabilities in this model.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Opta&#8217;s supercomputer adjusts the title odds after Man City close on Arsenal; full table prediction..<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11622,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[230,192,1056,969],"tags":[1162,1047],"class_list":["post-11623","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analytics-stats","category-arsenal","category-man-city","category-premier-league","tag-analytics","tag-champions-league"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11623","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11623"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11623\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11622"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11623"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11623"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11623"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}