Arsenal sit in a position where the title can be secured before the end of April, but only under a narrow sequence of results. Opta\u2019s supercomputer is confident enough to rate Arsenal\u2019s chances at north of 97%. That statistical edge underlines how likely the outcome appears, while acknowledging there are still matches to play and a Manchester City side capable of finding form.<\/p>\n
The earliest practical coronation requires five specific outcomes across mid-April. Arsenal must beat Bournemouth on April 11. On April 12 Chelsea must beat Manchester City. On April 19 Arsenal would need to win at Manchester City. City would then have to lose at Burnley on April 22. Finally, Arsenal cannot lose to Newcastle at the Emirates on April 25; a draw would be sufficient to clinch the title in this scenario.<\/p>\n
City have not lost at home to Arsenal since Santi Cazorla inspired a 2\u20130 victory in January 2015, and eight of the subsequent 11 Manchester meetings have finished as home wins for City. The draft scenario therefore hinges on an uncommon run of results for City, including defeats away from home.<\/p>\n
Aside from the head-to-head on April 19, both clubs are expected to be favourites in the remaining fixtures listed for the run-in. Arsenal have beaten every opponent they will face during the run-in this season aside from Manchester City. If Arsenal and City share points at the Etihad and otherwise win their remaining games, the title could be decided on the penultimate weekend of the season.<\/p>\n
A potential rearrangement of City\u2019s game-in-hand against Crystal Palace for Wednesday, May 13 would put greater focus on the weekend of May 17. The Premier League has not yet announced kickoff dates for that stage, so it is unclear whether Arsenal would even have to play then. If City drop points at Bournemouth on that weekend, Arsenal would be champions regardless of their match with Burnley; any positive result against Burnley would remove dependence on City\u2019s result entirely.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Arsenal can clinch the 2025\/26 Premier League before the end of April if City lose their next three.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11270,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[230,192,172],"tags":[1162],"class_list":["post-11271","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analytics-stats","category-arsenal","category-epl","tag-analytics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11271","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11271"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11271\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11270"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11271"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11271"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11271"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}