Arsenal\u2019s recent defeats in domestic cup competition have altered the mood around the club, but Opta\u2019s simulation still places Mikel Arteta\u2019s team firmly on top of the Premier League. Southampton\u2019s 2\u20131 win that eliminated Arsenal from the FA Cup and the north London side\u2019s loss in the Carabao Cup final have intensified talk that Arteta\u2019s side are primed to \u2019bottle\u2019 a title run, but the numbers tell a less dramatic story.<\/p>\n
Opta\u2019s supercomputer lists Arsenal with 70 current points and an expected points tally of 84.57, giving them a 97% title probability. Manchester City sit second on 61 points with expected points of 74.82 and a 3% chance of overtaking Arsenal in the title race. Opta notes Arsenal\u2019s title chance has only dropped by 0.77% since the two teams last played a league fixture.<\/p>\n
Manchester City reinforced their recent cup momentum with a 4\u20130 FA Cup quarterfinal win over Liverpool in which Erling Haaland scored a hat-trick. That result, alongside City\u2019s Carabao Cup success, has shifted perception, and City\u2019s probability will increase significantly if they beat Arsenal at the Etihad on April 19.<\/p>\n
Behind the top two, Opta\u2019s projections show Manchester United on 55 points with expected points of 66.06 and an 86.33% chance of reaching the Champions League places. Aston Villa sit close behind on 54 points, expected 65.12 and a 77.38% probability. Liverpool (49 points) and Chelsea (48 points) have lower projected chances of finishing in the top five, at 21.95% and 10.12% respectively, while Brentford and Everton have only slim hopes.<\/p>\n
At the bottom, the model highlights Burnley and Wolves as overwhelmingly likely to be relegated, while West Ham and Tottenham have seen their survival odds shift after recent results. Tottenham\u2019s recent managerial change to Roberto De Zerbi followed Igor Tudor\u2019s 44-day spell, and a home loss to Nottingham Forest has increased Spurs\u2019 relegation probability to 26.33%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Opta model still rates Arsenal top after cup losses; City short odds, Villa rise in Champions chase.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10870,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[230,192,969],"tags":[1162,1066,1047],"class_list":["post-10871","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analytics-stats","category-arsenal","category-premier-league","tag-analytics","tag-carabao-cup","tag-champions-league"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10871","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10871"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10871\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10870"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10871"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10871"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.weplayfpl.com\/news-articles\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10871"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}